Sergio Ermotti: against all odds

For most people, Sergio Ermotti was the future CEO of Unicredit when Allessandro Profumo stepped back from his post under pressure in 2010. But Ermotti  was only offered the "Co-CEO" title. He didn't accept the post and started at UBS in spring 2011. As a Swiss native, fluent in Italian, English and Swiss-German, being much more than an investment banker but equally experienced in global equity markets, he seemed to be the perfect match for the future CEO post of the 5th largest bank world-wide. When Oswald Grübel resigned this August over a trading scandal and political disputes, Sergio Ermotti's journey began: 

1.) Kaspar Villiger, head of the UBS supervisory board, named Ermotti "CEO ad-interim". How could a manager with this title engineer a major strategy shift? How could one redefine the entire risk management with such a weak signal of trust from his board?

2.)  Internally the title "ad interim" was an indicator that the guy was on the testbed. One could simply watch and stand by. Would he make it? It was certainly smart to ensure that he knew you - but more than that? Why bother.

3.)  A few days later a leak revealed that headhunting firm Egon Zehnder had been appointed to find a new CEO for UBS. This weakened Ermotti's position significantly. It made clear that the supervisory board was seriously split about the "CEO ad interim" - an unwelcome button on Ermotti's chest.

4.)    A week later the media discovered that Ermotti was presiding more than one family firm in Tessin with holdings in Panama. Tax evasion was suspected. UBS, questioned about these investments, first said they had been checked and were clean, but later pulled back and suggested a new investigation. This move clearly indicated an intent to please the public and dispose of the interim CEO at any given time.

5.) The next leak brought to light that the designated successor of Kaspar Villiger as head of the supervisory board wanted his say. Axel Weber had asked for a consulting engagement at UBS to bring his voice to the table. This could only mean that people were completely split over Ermotti. He did not seem to be Weber's favorite. And again: who would like this to be public knowledge?

6.) Weber did the worst thing possible - he presented his favorite candidate. But Hugo Bänziger, member of the Deutsche Bank management team, didn't want to leave Deutsche.

7.) Even when the Italian bank Unicredit announced dramatically bad results in Q32011, the Swiss media traced these results back to Sergio Ermotti. They said something like: "When this guy has left a mess behind him, how could he possibly lead UBS into a prosperous future?"

8.) Finally Kaspar Villiger told the media: "Sergio Ermotti proved himself in the difficult role of CEO ad-interim." This reminds me of parents saying: "Little Joe always did his homework, even when we had quarrels." I think it's ridiculous to speak down on your CEO.

So - finally Ermotti was appointed CEO this last week. We should send congratulations and take away an important lesson: victory is the product of many, many  defeats. 

By the way: I predicted his victory four weks ago. If you have watched him closely you could hear that he always spoke out. There is already a nice pool of strong quotes by Ermotti. That is the secret for his sucess.